economypromЭкономика промышленности / Russian Journal of Industrial EconomicsRussian Journal of Industrial Economics2072-16332413-662XMISIS10.17073/2072-1633-2025-2-1393economyprom-1393Research ArticleЭкономика предприятийBusiness economicsПовышение достоверности экономического прогноза за счет проверки нормальности распределения массива данныхIncreasing the reliability of the economic forecast by checking the normality of the data array distributionhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2108-0241КостюхинЮ. Ю.KostyukhinYu. Yu.

Юрий Юрьевич Костюхин – д-р экон. наук, профессор

119049, Москва, Ленинский просп., д. 4, стр. 1

Yuriy Yu. Kostyukhin – Dr.Sci. (Econ.), Professor

4-1 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049

kostuhinyury@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-2915-742XБогачевА. С.BogachevA. S.

Андрей Сергеевич Богачев – ассистент кафедры промышленного менеджмента

119049, Москва, Ленинский просп., д. 4, стр. 1

Andrey S. Bogachev – Assistant of the Department of Industrial Management

4-1 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049

andr.bogachiov@yandex.ruНациональный исследовательский технологический университет "МИСИС"РоссияNational University of Science and Technology “MISIS”Russian Federation202519062025182275281Copyright © Костюхин Ю.Ю., Богачев А.С., 20252025Костюхин Ю.Ю., Богачев А.С.Kostyukhin Y.Y., Bogachev A.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecoprom.misis.ru/jour/article/view/1393

Одной из ошибок прогнозирования тенденций экономического развития является отсутствие первоначальной проверки нормальности распределения данных как неотъемлемое условие применимости статистических процедур. Применимость данных методов к искаженным данным приводит к неточности и снижению качества экономического прогноза. Цель работы – провести поэтапную проверку нормальности распределения данных для обеспечения более высокой достоверности экономического прогноза на основе тестов симметрии, таких как коэффициент вариации, графики квантилей, среднее абсолютное отклонение, диапазон размаха варьирования и статистика Жарка–Бера. Обработка данных, основанная на распределении валового внутреннего продукта РФ с 2000 по 2020 г., показала наличие нормального распределения массива, что способствует достоверному экономическому прогнозу и оценки перспектив изменений в будущем с целью минимизации ошибок и искажению результатов.

One of the errors in forecasting economic development trends is lack of initial normality check of data distribution as an essential condition for the applicability of statistical procedures. The applicability of these methods to distorted data results in inaccuracy and low quality of the economic forecast. The purpose of the study is to carry out a step-to-step normality check of data distribution to ensure a more accurate economic forecast based on the symmetry tests such as the coefficient of variation, quantile graphs, average absolute deviation, range of variation, and Jarque–Bera statistic. Data processing based on distribution of Russia’s gross domestic product from 2000 to 2020 revealed a normal array distribution, which ensures reliable economic forecasting and assessment of prospects for future changes in order to minimize errors and distorted results.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.