economypromЭкономика промышленности / Russian Journal of Industrial EconomicsRussian Journal of Industrial Economics2072-16332413-662XMISIS10.17073/2072-1633-2025-2-1475economyprom-1475Research ArticleЭкономика предприятийBusiness economicsРазработка новых подходов к прогнозированию и оценке эффективности сделок слияния и поглощенияDevelopment of new approaches to forecasting and evaluating the effectiveness of mergers and acquisitionshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3146-621XМитенковА. В.MitenkovA. V.

Алексей Владимирович Митенков – д-р экон. наук, канд. филос. наук, директор института эконоvики и управления промышленными предприятиями, доцент кафедры экономики

119049, Москва, Ленинский просп., д. 4, стр. 1

Alexey V. Mitenkov – Dr.Sci. (Econ.), PhD (Philosoph.), Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics

4-1 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049

amit-77@mail.ruКлеванскийВ. Ф.KlevanskyV. F.

Вадим Феликсович Клеванский – аспирант кафедры экономики института экономики и управления промышленными предприятиями, Национальный исследовательский технологический университет «МИСИС», ; директор по слияниям и поглощениям, ООО «ЕВРАЗ»

119049, Москва, Ленинский просп., д. 4, стр. 1

121353, Москва, ул. Беловежская, д. 4, блок «В»

Vadim F. Klevanskiy – Postgraduate Student of the Department of Economics of the Institute of Economics and Management of Industrial Enterprises, National University of Science and Technology “MISIS”; Director of Mergers and Acquisitions, EVRAZ

4-1 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049

4-B Belovezhskaya Str., Moscow 121353

m2315558@edu.misis.ruНациональный исследовательский технологический университет «МИСИС»РоссияNational University of Science and Technology “MISIS”Russian FederationНациональный исследовательский технологический университет «МИСИС»; ООО «ЕВРАЗ»РоссияNational University of Science and Technology “MISIS”; EVRAZRussian Federation202519062025182254264Copyright © Митенков А.В., Клеванский В.Ф., 20252025Митенков А.В., Клеванский В.Ф.Mitenkov A.V., Klevansky V.F.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecoprom.misis.ru/jour/article/view/1475

В статье рассмотрена проблема противоречивости и недостаточной точности количественных методов, применяемых при анализе сделок слияний и поглощений. Авторы отмечают, что критерии эффективности заключенных сделок, используемые большинством исследователей, не соответствуют реальным факторам, которые учитываются руководством компаний при принятии решений о сделке. Это приводит к разрыву между теоретическими разработками и их практическим применением, а также ограничивает внедрение научных результатов в практику. В работе исследованы и идентифицированы основные недостатки наиболее распространенных методов анализа: накопленной избыточной доходности (Cumulative Abnormal Returns, или CARs) и избыточной доходности покупки и удержания (Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns, или BHAR), а также впервые предложены гипотезы среднесрочной доходности и долгосрочной окупаемости, отражающие критерии прогноза успешности сделок слияний и поглощений с позиции менеджмента. Разработаны новые подходы к статистическому анализу рынка слияний и поглощений, позволяющие выявлять сделки, результаты которых существенно отличаются от средних показателей в ту или иную сторону.

Дальнейшая разработка и эмпирическая проверка предложенных подходов могут способствовать внедрению новых методик оценки эффективности слияний и поглощений, а также созданию на их основе отраслевых и универсальных рекомендаций для руководителей компаний-покупателей.

The article touches upon the problem of inconsistencies and insufficient accuracy of quantitative methods applied in analyzing mergers and acquisitions. The authors point out that the criteria for the effectiveness of the concluded deals used by the majority of researchers do not conform to the real factors which are not taken into consideration by companies’ top managers when making decisions about a deal. This results in the gap between theoretical developments and their practical application and also limits the implementation of scientific results in practice. The authors study and identify the main disadvantages of the most common analysis methods: Cumulative Abnormal Returns, or CARs, Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns, or BHAR, and also, they suggest hypotheses of medium-term profitability and long-term payback illustrating the criteria of predicting the success of mergers and acquisitions from the viewpoint of management. The authors have developed new approaches to statistical analysis of the market of mergers and acquisitions that allow to identify the deals the results of which differ significantly from the average in one direction or another. Further development and empirical testing of the suggested approaches can provide for the introduction of new techniques of evaluation of effectiveness of mergers and acquisitions, as well as for creation of sectoral and universal recommendations for top managers of the buyer companies on their basis.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.