economypromЭкономика промышленности / Russian Journal of Industrial EconomicsRussian Journal of Industrial Economics2072-16332413-662XMISIS10.17073/2072-1633-2020-4-482-493economyprom-883Research ArticleНациональная индустриальная экономикаNational industrial economyВозможности и комбинационности китайской стратегии «Пояс и путь» для национальных экономик Юго-Восточной АзииOpportunities and combinations of chinese "Belt and Road" initiative for national economies of Southeast Asiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7337-2874МасловА. А.MaslovA. A.

Маслов Алексей Александрович – д-р ист. наук, профессор, врио директора

117997, Москва, Нахимовский просп., д. 32

Alexey A. Maslov – PhD (Historical), Professor, Acting Director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor of HSE National Research Universitym 

32 Nakhimovsky Prospect, Moscow 117997

amaslov@asianinstitute.orgИнститут Дальнего Востока РАН, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияInstitute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, HSE National Research UniversityRussian Federation202019122020134482493Copyright © Маслов А.А., 20202020Маслов А.А.Maslov A.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecoprom.misis.ru/jour/article/view/883

Первоначально инициатива «Пояс и Путь» была встречена в Юго-Восточной Азии с большим энтузиазмом, так как позволяла напитать деньгами перспективные проекты и вывести продукцию стран Юго-Восточной Азии на международные рынки. Однако подавляющее число проектов в Индонезии, Малайзии, Лаосе, Филиппинах, Таиланде испытывают очень большие сложности и ни один из них не завершен. Основные объёмы инвестиций и кредитов выделяются Китаем исключительно под инфраструктурные проекты, при этом серьезные средства на инновационные индустриальные объекты или информационные структуры не выделяются. Дороги и логистические сооружения будут использоваться в дальнейшем либо для перевозки китайских товаров в эти страны (то есть имеют мультипликативный эффект для китайской стороны), экспорт сырья в Китай, либо по ним может доставляться продукция местной промышленности. Экономическая целесообразность и качество инвестиций проектов в Индонезии и Малайзии вызывает большие сомнения, Лаос и Мьянма берут кредиты у Китая под развитие железнодорожной сети, не имея своей развитой промышленности, и таким образом эти территории могут быть лишь транзитными территориями для китайских товаров. Эти страны вообще не могут окупить проекты, многие из них оказываются недостроенными, а поэтому задолженность перед Китаем растет. Мегапроект коридора Южный Китай–Юго-Восточная Азия оказался экономически не просчитан и его экономическая целесообразность для стран участников (кроме самого Китая) вызывает много вопросов.

Initially, the Belt and Road initiative was greeted with enthusiasm in Southeast Asia, as it made possible to support projects and bring the products from Southeast Asia to international markets. However, the overwhelming number of projects in Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos, Philippines, and Thailand are experiencing significant difficulties,and none of them has been completed. China’s main volumes of investments and loans are allocated exclusively for infrastructure projects, while serious funds are not allocated for innovative industrial facilities or IT structures. Railroads and logistics facilities will be used to export Chinese goods to these countries, import raw materials to China, or deliver local industry products. The economic feasibility and quality of investments in projects in Indonesia and Malaysia are in great doubt. Laos and Myanmar are taking loans from China to develop the railway network without developing their own industry, so these regions can only be traders of Chinese goods. These countries cannot recoup the projects at all, many of them turn out to be unfinished, and therefore the debt to China is growing. The mega-project of the South China-Southeast Asia corridor was not economically sustainable. Its economic feasibility for the participating countries (except for China itself) raises many questions.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.