在预测预期的基础上管理市场剧烈波动时期的企业投资吸引力

经济和财务活动效率的确定主要基于公司的财务业绩。对于股份公司的经营活动，及时或提前评估财务活动前景以增加公司利润和提高公司潜力尤为重要。为了实现这一目标，客观评估构成公司创新战略的要素至关重要，同时考虑到内部和外部影响因素以及公司的特殊情况。在评估具体情况时，不仅要考虑创新环境和形势，还要考虑其创新潜力。财务状况的评估标准是可用于分析公司活动的财务比率。本研究建议根据统计预测技术的可变性建立一个高精度模型，然后进行全面评估，以确定客观上影响公司投资吸引力的因素。在初始阶段，每季度计算企业的 40 个财务指标，为期七年，外部环境的10 个因素，随后，在多重相关性分析的基础上，选出与主要因素相关性最大的因素，即股票价值，股票价值用二进制代码表示，0 表示减少，1 表示增加。结合使用回归分析、高斯过程、累积前景理论和矢量测量的构建方法，使模型的准确率从 89% 提高到 96.7%，并确定了有助于预测公司投资吸引力的主要指标，即：净流动资本在资产中所占份额、居民实际收入水平和已动用资本回报率。

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