通过检查数据组分布的正态性来提高经济预测的可靠性
https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2025-2-1393
摘要
预测经济发展趋势的错误之一是缺乏对数据分布正态性的初步检验，而这是统计程序适 用性的必要条件。将这些方法应用于失真数据会导致经济预测不准确和质量下降。这项工作的 目的是逐步检验数据分布的正态性，以确保在变异系数、分位数图、平均绝对偏差、方差范围 和 Jarque-Bera 检验等对称性检验的基础上提高经济预测的可靠性。根据2000年至2020年俄 罗斯联邦国内生产总值分布数据处理表明，该数据组呈现出正态分布，有利于对未来经济变化 前景进行可靠的预测和评估，从而尽量减少错误和结果失真。
关于作者
Yu. Yu. 科斯秋欣
国立研究型技术大学 “MISIS”
俄罗斯联邦
俄罗斯联邦
119049，俄罗斯联邦莫斯科列宁斯基大街4号1栋
A. S. 博加乔夫
国立研究型技术大学 “MISIS”
俄罗斯联邦
俄罗斯联邦
119049，俄罗斯联邦莫斯科列宁斯基大街4号1栋
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供引用:
科斯秋欣 Yu.Yu., 博加乔夫 A.S. 通过检查数据组分布的正态性来提高经济预测的可靠性. 工业经济. 2025;18(2):275-281. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2025-2-1393
For citation:
Kostyukhin Yu.Yu., Bogachev A.S. Increasing the reliability of the economic forecast by checking the normality of the data array distribution. Russian Journal of Industrial Economics. 2025;18(2):275-281. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2025-2-1393
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