开发预测和评估并购交易有效性的新方法

文章探讨了在分析并购交易时使用的定量方法存在不一致和不够准确的问题。作者指 出，大多数研究人员使用的交易有效性标准与公司管理层在做出交易决策时考虑的实际因素 并不相符。这导致了理论研究与实际应用之间的脱节，并限制了科学成果在实践中的应用。 本文研究并确定了最常用的分析方法——累积异常收益率（CAR）和购买并持有异常收益率 （BHAR）的主要缺点，并首次提出了中期盈利能力和长期回报的假设，反映了从管理层角度 预测并购交易成功与否的标准。开发了新的并购市场统计分析方法，从而可以识别在某个方向 上结果与平均值存在显著性差异的交易。

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