Strategic planning and forecasting system in the Russian Federation: a regional projection

The article is devoted to the system of strategic planning and forecasting at the RF subject level and methodical support for forecasting on the principles outlined in Federal Law No. 172-FL of June 28, 2014 «On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation». According to the Federal Law, subjects of the Russian Federation develop organizational and methodological support themselves. The forecast is based on the forecast of the socio-economic development and scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation. Considering the fact that there are no methodological elaborations available both for drawing up a regional development strategy and for building regional forecasts at the moment it is necessary to prepare methodological recommendations and tools for constructing forecasts at the level of a the Russian Federation subject corresponding with the world level and allowing to hierarchically link forecast and strategic elaborations at the municipal, regional and federal levels. The article is a step in this direction. The paper describes methodological principles of preparing economic forecasts. The features of the development and content of forecasts for the short, medium and long term are analyzed. A particular attention is paid to the long-term forecast designed to justify the possible state of the socio-economic system in the future, and to determine alternative ways of its development. The peculiarities of the region as an object for medium and long-term forecasting are revealed. Economic development in the long term perspective always involves structural transformation. The level of forecast reliability will be determined by resources of the tools used. As tools which can be taken to use and simulate changes appear elaborations based on inter-industry models, with elements of dynamic optimization appear.

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