Approach to form the territorial system development strategy using simulation and scenario modeling tools

The studies were carried out in the problematic of improving the tools for implementing economic policy which ensure widespread use of strategic planning and regulation methods in real practice of managing the territorial systems development at various levels. The article highlights the most pressing problems of improving the efficiency of socio-economic development planning for territorial systems, including in the context of the modern digital economy development. The need for implementation analytical processing systems and the management information effective use to substantiate strategic decisions is indicated as the priority problem. The comparative assessment of the well-known methodologies, methods and ready-made software solutions in modeling the economy of territorial socio-economic system at the different levels is carried out. Their strengths and weaknesses are identified for solving the identified problems and priority tasks of territorial development. The basic principles and requirements are formulated for the territorial socio-economic system’s development predicting tools. The conceptual scheme for implementing the simulation model is proposed. In general terms, the scheme provides the adaptation of the SAM methodology to formalize economic agents’ expenses and incomes balance. At the same time it involves the use of econometric methods, fuzzy logic theory and soft computing algorithms. The statement of the simulation problem is considered, the structure and the block’s relations logic for the simulation model are described. It is proposed to formalize the basic parameters connections of the model in two groups: in the first group the system relations of the model parameters are identified and formalized by SAM methodology; in the second group the factor relations are identified and formalized using econometric methods. Some results of forecasting calculations are given as part of the substantiation of the strategy for socio-economic development of the of Ufa city for the period until 2030.

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