Prospects for using data from pending orders for forecasting oil prices in Russia
https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2021-1-42-49
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Abstract
Modern oil-pricing is more dependent on the stock market conditions than on the cost price or demand and supply laws. The price is infl uenced by a great number of objective and subjective factors. The ability to analyze these factors is the basis of the modern stock market trade. Thus, stock quotes are the key to analyzing oil market in the short-term perspective. The authors study current trends informing pricing factors of the oil market and their influence. They point out the peculiarities of using orders as pricing tools, adduce Russian experience on pending orders at the oil market, analyze the specificity and prospects of using pending orders for analyzing oil market. So, changes of the conditions can be predicted much faster than by using traditional statistic methods of analyzing transactions. The authors conclude that using such a tool as a pending order will lead to better understanding of the market conditions for the main Russian oil brand (Urals). It will make the market more predictable and controllable by the government which will mitigate the consequences of drastic changes in oil prices and the changes of the cost of energy and fuel arising from that making the economy more resistant to crises. More accurate forecasts will increase the Russian traders’ income from the transactions. The authors use international researches devoted to stock market trade and data analysis, and information from software developers who design programs for analyzing stock market data.
Supporting agencies: The article was written as part of proactive research work No. 061606-0- 000 on the topic “Improving mechanisms of controlling oil pricing for Brent and Urals brands as the condition for reinforcement of energy security of Russia”. The research is conducted by the Department of National Economy of RUDN University
About the Authors
D. V. Paleev
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Denis L. Paleev – Ph.D (Eng.), Associate Professor, Department of National Economy, Faculty of Economics
6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow 117198
M. V. Chernyaev
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Maksim V. Chernyaev – Ph.D (Econ.), PhD (Economics and National Economy Management), Associate Professor, Department of National Economy, Dean’s Advisor on the Foreign Economic Activity, Deputy Head of Department of National Economy, RUDN University
6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow 117198
Yu. V. Solovyova
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yuliana V. Solovyova – Ph.D (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of National Economy, Faculty of Economy
6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., Moscow 117198
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Review
For citations:
Paleev D.V., Chernyaev M.V., Solovyova Yu.V. Prospects for using data from pending orders for forecasting oil prices in Russia. Russian Journal of Industrial Economics. 2021;14(1):42-49. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2021-1-42-49
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ISSN 2072-1633 (Print)
ISSN 2413-662X (Online)
ISSN 2413-662X (Online)
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