Development scenarios of new world order and transition to carbon-neutral waste-free economics-2050
https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2021-1-76-88
Abstract
The authors analyze the patterns of strategic transformations in developed and developing countries by 2050. They paid special attention to basic global present-day trends and forecasting the changes in chemical industry. The article examines the predictive model of strategic solutions of the European Union based on strategic long-term vision of the modern competitive economy’s prosperity. The authors present the analysis of scenarios of transition to waste-free and effective technologies suggested by Europe. They take into consideration scientifi c and technological development and determine major reference points for development of chemical industry in Russia by means of examination of the developed models, scenarios, strategies, programs of transformation in different countries of the world and transition to carbon-neutral waste-free economics. The authors consider predictive scenarios of development of Russia’s chemical industry.
About the Authors
O. T. Shipkova
National University of Science and Technology MISIS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Olga T. Shipkova – Ph.D (Econ.), Associate Professor, Romentz College of Economics and Industrial Management
4 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049
SPIN-код автора: 1156-3266
Z. V. Vdovenko
National University of Science and Technology “MISIS”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Zinaida V. Vdovenko – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Romentz College of Economics and Industrial Management
4 Leninskiy Ave., Moscow 119049
References
1. Keller A., Belderok A., Douma E., Kühner S. Chemicals 2035 – Gearing up for growth: How Europe’s chemical industry can gain traction in a tougher world. München: Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants; 2015. 16 p.
2. Hawksworth J., Clarry R., Audino H. The long view: How will the global economic order change by 2050? London: PwC; 2017. 14 p. URL: https://www.hse.ru/data/2017/02/16/1167727304/PWC.%20World%20in%202050.%202017.pdf (accessed on 25.01.2020).
3. In-depth analysis in support of the Commission. A clean planet for all: A European strategic long-term strategic vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. European Commission Communication. 2018;(773). https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf (accessed on 27.04.2020).
4. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Conference of the Parties. Twenty-first session. Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015. Framework Convention on Climate Change. UN. Dec. 12, 2015. URL: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf (accessed on 25.05.2020).
5. Swilling M., Hajer M., Baynes T. et al. The weight of cities: Resource requirements of future urbanization. Paris: UNEP; 2018. 280 p. URL: https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/weight-cities (accessed on 05.03.2020).
6. Friedrichsen N., Erdogmus G., Duscha V. Comparative analysis of options and potential for emission abatement in industry – summary of study comparison and study factsheets. Climate Change. 2018;(19). URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1410/publikationen/2018-07-16_climate-change_19-2018_ets-7_analyse-minderungspotenzialstudien_fin.pdf (accessed on 02.02.2020).
7. Study on energy efficiency and energy savings potential in industry and on possible policy mechanisms. London: ICF Consulting Ltd; 2015. 461 p. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/default/files/documents/151201%20DG%20ENER%20Industrial%20EE%20study%20-%20final%20report_clean_stc.pdf (accessed on 25.05.2020).
8. European chemistry for growth: Unlocking a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient future. Brussels: Cefic – The European Chemical Industry Council; 2013. 186 p. URL: https://cefic.org/app/uploads/2019/01/Energy-Roadmap-The-ReportEuropean-chemistry-for-growth_BROCHURE-Energy.pdf (accessed: 27.07.2020).
9. Boulamanti A., Moya J.A. Energy efficiency and GHG emissions: Prospective scenarios for the chemical and petrochemical industry. Luxembourg: European Union; 2017. 237 p. URL: http://re.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Energy%20efficiency%20and%20GHG%20emissions.pdf (accessed on 21.05.2020).
10. Bazzanella A.M., Ausfelder F. Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry. Frankfurt am Main: DECHEMA; 2017. 168 p. URL: https://dechema.de/dechema_media/Downloads/Positionspapiere/Technology_study_Low_carbon_energy_and_feedstock_for_the_European_chemical_industry.pdf (accessed on 22.05.2020).
11. Eichhammer W., Herbst A., Pfaff M., Fleiter T., Pfluger B. Impact on the environment and the economy of technological innovations for the Innovation Fund (IF). Luxembourg: The European Union; 2018. 86 p. URL: https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/669226c7-b6ff11e8-99ee-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-77120765 (accessed on 2.03.2020).
12. Chan Y., Petithuguenin L., Fleiter T., Herbst A., Arens M., Stevenson P. Industrial innovation: Pathways to deep decarbonisation of Industry. Part 1: Technology analysis. London: ICF Consulting Services Ltd; 2019. 124 p. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/strategies/2050/docs/industrial_innovation_part_1_en.pdf (accessed on 25.05.2020).
13. FleiterT., Herbst A., Rehfeldt M., Arens M. Industrial innovation: Pathways to deep decarbonisation of industry. Part 2: Scenario analysis and pathways to deep decarbonisation. London: ICF Consulting Services Ltd; 2019. 104 p. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/strategies/2050/docs/industrial_innovation_part_2_en.pdf (accessed on 12.03.2020).
14. Renewable cost database and auctions database. IRENA. URL: https://www.irena.org/costs/IRENA-Renewable-Costing-Alliance (accessed on 12.03.2020).
15. Eurostat official website. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database (accessed on 2.08.2020).
16. Fully decarbonising Europe’s energy system by 2050. Helsinki: Pöyry; 2018. 9 p. URL: https://afry.com/sites/default/files/2020-06/poyrypointofview_fullydecarbonisingeuropesenergysystemby2050.pdf (accessed on 12.03.2020).
17. Efficiency first: A new paradigm for the European energy system. Driving competitiveness, energy security and decarbonisation through increased energy productivity. The Hague: European Climate Foundation. 2016. 11 p. URL: http://www.raponline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ecf-efficiency-firstnew-paradigm-eruopean-energy-system-june-2016.pdf (accessed on 2.03.2020).
18. European Electricity Sector gears up for the energy transition. EURELECTRIC. Apr. 05, 2017. URL: https://www.eurelectric.org/media/2128/eurelectric_statement_on_the_energy_transition_2-2017-030-0250-01-e.pdf (accessed on 2.04.2020).
19. How the European chemical industry could become carbon neutral by 2050. EUROACTIV. July 19, 2017. URL: https://pr.euractiv.com/pr/howeuropean-chemical-industry-could-become-carbonneutral-2050-156637 (accessed on 2.03.2020).
20. Hatzack F.-A., Saunders J. Delphi study report: The European chemical industry in a 2050 perspective. Study on the development of key areas within economy, geopolitics, society, technology and environment. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Inst. for Futures Studies; 2018. 120 p. URL: https://open.unido.org/api/documents/14587286/download/Cefic-Delphi-ReportFinal.pdf (accessed on 12.03.2020).
21. Sausheva O.S. Monitoring of the effectiveness of recycling: Tasks and organization. Nauchnyi zhurnal NIU ITMO. Seriya: Ekonomika i ekologicheskii menedzhment = Scientific Journal NRU ITMO. Series: Economics and Environmental Management. 2017;(4):102–109. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17586/2310-1172-2017-10-4-102-109
22. Aengenheyster S., Cuhls K., Gerhold L., Heiskanen-Schüttler M., Huck J., Muszynska M. Realtime Delphy in practice. A comparative analysis of existing software-based tools. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017;118:1527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.023
23. Analytical materials of JSC NIITEKHIM. Rosstat. URL: https://www.gks.ru (accessed on 22.03.2020). (In Russ.)
Review
For citations:
Shipkova O.T., Vdovenko Z.V. Development scenarios of new world order and transition to carbon-neutral waste-free economics-2050. Russian Journal of Industrial Economics. 2021;14(1):76-88. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2021-1-76-88
Views:
595
Email this article 