在垂直整合工业控股公司的并购交易中评估和提高经济活动效率的组织和经济工具

本研究旨在完善垂直整合工业控股公司投资活动的业务流程。重点评估并购交易 （M&A）的效果和实施过程中产生的社会经济关系。研究的核心是关注一种特定的行为风 险——错失恐惧症（FoMO, Fear of Missing Out），这种风险在行业转型时期会扭曲经济决 策中的理性业务流程，使企业达成低效交易。 研究中应用了系统分析与综合方法，以揭示FOMO特征与企业长期绩效之间的关系。研究根据 63笔采矿-冶金行业的交易数据进行了验证。并购后的企业绩效评估采用了一种专有的 “中期 回报率” 方法，该方法基于交易完成后四年内的EBITDA动态变化。本文开发了一个综合风险指标（RIF），该指标涵盖对交易动态、投资者情绪、跨境活动和价 格趋势的监测。研究表明，当该指标达到临界值时，预示业务流程质量下降以及签订“超亏 损”交易的可能性增加。作者提出了一种改进企业风险管理流程的算法，包括建立独立的“反 对交易”小组，以及在现金流折现（DCF）模型中引入替代情景。 在工业控股公司的业务流程中应用所提出的经济工具，有助于最大限度地减少管理中的非理性 因素。工业企业董事会切实运用风险指标（RIF），有助于通过预防潜在的破坏性整合过程， 在长期内提高并购交易的经营效率。

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