Practical method of risk assessment in the energy sector under uncertainty

The study presents a methodology for assessing financial risks using projects AMI implementation and ASCOTE in the face of uncertainty. An example of an evaluation of a real project for the implementation of ASUE and ASCUTE systems is presented. The main problems of implementation of this project are considered. In modern conditions of business operation, the decisionmaking process is based only on the experience and intuition of experts is currently not effective. We must use modern information technologies, which have already received the generic name «decision support systems for management decisions». Taking into account the weak formalization of such tasks, it is necessary to apply methods of system analysis with the involvement of expert assessment technology, both at the initial and final stages of obtaining and choosing the most rational alternatives to management decisions. The tasks of improving the accuracy and efficiency of measurement of electrical and thermal energy, power in electrical networks, the amount of thermal energy in thermal networks are due to the following main reasons: firstly, a significant increase in the cost of electrical and thermal energy, secondly, the reforms carried out in the energy sector of the Russian Federation, thirdly, the fair billing. The research is devoted to the analysis and assessment of the priority of ASUE and ASCUTE functions. The Association of risk subsystems and functions in a single multi-level system. Based on the analysis of binary relations, an integrated model of the risk-function system in the form of a hierarchical tree structure is obtained. Applied the method of paired comparisons in the assessment of risk hierarchies that affect the effectiveness of the projects. The paper presents approaches to solving problems related to organizational and technical reengineering of production, which is due to the weak structuring of these problems, from the formation of goals to the adoption of technical and managerial decisions.

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